Monday 1 May 2017

Portfolio Update - April 2017

*As of 30 April 2017

Counter
Average Price
Yield on cost(%)
Weightage
Singtel
3.7000
4.74
15.73%
Fraser Logistics & Industrial Trust
0.9317
7.50
8.91%
Starhub
3.4700
4.60
8.30%
SIA
9.8600
2.00
7.86%
First REIT
1.2532
6.38
6.09%
ParkwayLife REIT
2.4000
5.10
5.74%
M1
2.3600
5.00
5.64%
UOB Bank
18.2150
4.00
4.84%
Capitaland Mall Trust
1.9050
5.80
4.56%
CDL Hospitality Trust
1.3050
6.80
3.12%
AimsAmp Cap REIT
1.3300
8.40
7.07%
Ascott Residence Trust
0.9700
7.50
5.67%
Keppel DC REIT
1.0822
6.17
2.30%
Capitaland Commercial
1.3523
6.15
1.80%
SPHREIT
0.9293
5.80
1.73%
Ascendas Hospitality
0.6991
8.03
0.93%
Mapletree Logistics
0.9800
7.40
0.78%
STI ETF
2.8058
3.50
8.95%
Total

5.40
100.00%

Legend
CDP
SCB

Total Invested Capital = $37,637.27

Total Expected Dividends/month = $169.37

Average Dividend Yield = 5.40%

The month of April had been an eventful one. Mostly a rebalancing of my portfolio by liquidation of oil & gas counters and increasing on certain counters.

1) Ascott REIT Rights Issue

First off, we start on the results of the Ascott REIT rights issue which I had taken part in March. I was allotted 2200 shares from the issue from both the provisional and oversubscription of the rights issue. I am still holding on to the units as the prices have not really recovered strongly, as it still continues to be resisted at the price level which I had previously sold the mother shares. I am looking at the TP of at least higher than $1.15 before I offload the positions. Given the huge resistance at $1.10, it is going to be some time before the price will hit my TP. Nevertheless, at the price issues and taking into account the loss I made when I exited the mother shares, my average price of the REIT is in the region of $0.97, at a comfortable level to get around 6-7% yield and having some exposure to the hospitality sector which is seeing some signs of recovery.



2) Exited position on Keppel Corp

I had exited my position of Keppel Corp at the price of $6.58 a piece. This was after it had announced results which I felt was disappointing. The profits it announced were manly from one-off gains which once taken out of the equation, puts Keppel Corp results to be on the weaker side this time round. Current price hovers at around PB of exactly 1, though the price I exited was far below the $7 plus highs it made during the strong rebound, I felt that the strength in the stock was unsustainable. For the strength in the rally to be sustainable, the results of the company should keep up. In the short term, the poor results could cause some short term weaknesses in the share price, which should it go back down to test the $5 mark, I would be interested to get back into the stock again. Nevertheless, at a 22% profit gained in the last 8 months holding this stock, I felt that it was time to take some profits off the table first. The stock may re-bounce off the oversold position it is in right now, but overall it was a good trading play.


3) Exited position on Sembcorp Industries

In addition, I had exited my position on Sembcorp Industries, after the poor results announced by Sembcorp Marine. Given the lacklustre activities in the rig business, we should expect a long winter ahead for the offshore segment for Sembcorp Industries. As for the utilities segment, which was deemed as the the most defensive business segment of Sembcorp. In this segment, the local power business remained heavily competitive, which adds to the worry that investors should continue to monitor for the results to come on Wednesday. The most promising part of Sembcorp has to be the aggressive inking of deals in the power market in developing markets such as India and Myanmar. Should the investments in these markets start to take off, then we might see some upside in the share price. However, the weaker positions it has in the rig and local power market may continue to cause a drag to its results, though many think that the worst which happened in 2016 was over. In other words, it cannot get any more worse than it is right now. So why the rationale for selling? I still believe that the results will still continue to lag the improvement in fundamentals in the rig and shipbuilding, repair services of Sembcorp Marine. We are beginning to see some uptick in interest in niche areas such as clean energy (e.g, LNG vessels) which may improve business activities for Sembcorp. However, in the bigger picture, the outlook remains bleak as the core business in rigs remains oversupplied. As such, I decided to bite the bullet and take profits first. Should prices correct to my original buy price, then I may assess again to enter again. Nevertheless, at around 25% gain in the 7 months of holding this stock, it was the most rewarding position I have taken so far.


4) Increased position on Singtel

I have increased another tranche of Singtel at $3.73 a piece as the prices started to correct heavily, perhaps due to the spotlight on the high prices paid in the spectrum rights bidding exercise. This brings the overall average price to $3.70 at 15% of my portfolio. This is rather a heavy position, I know, but should Singtel return to $4 then it would prove to be a good trading play. Therefore, I am tipping this to be 50% investment and 50% trading play. Sales proceeds from the oil and gas counters were used to fund this play, and I may continue to add on further weaknesses. On Saturday, I have seen the news that a substantial stakeholder has decided to dispose its stake in Singtel, citing the highly competitive market it is in right now. This news is likely to cause weakness in the share price come Tuesday when the markets open, and the next level to look out for after the $3.70 level breaks would be $3.66 and thereafter $3.60. Should it go lower, I would be waiting below to scoop more shares.



That is pretty much it. As we can see, I have reduced many of my stocks positions recently. Excluding the telcos and SIA, now my entire portfolio is made up of REITs. Not really a diversified portfolio anymore, I know. I may start to reduce some positions on the REITs as valuations now seem on the high side, given that Yellen is likely to continue in her hiking of interest rates, which is likely to cause REITs to fall once again. We have to anticipate this beforehand, and when it does, we can be ready to deploy our funds back in again.


My portfolio has remained the same size as compared to last month, as sale proceeds were used to pay for the new positions added to the portfolio. I would very much want to keep the portfolio in the same size as much as possible, which keeps my investment allocation at 30-40% of my investable funds. The maximum I can tolerate would be 50%, so that I can continue to have ample cash to deploy should opportunities/black swan events arise over the horizon.

Well, now lets welcome May, and May the Force be with you.

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