Sunday, 4 December 2016

Portfolio Update - November 2016

*As of 30 November 2016

Counter Average Price Yield on cost(%) Weightage
UOB Bank
17.8600
4.00
11.88%
OCBC Bank
8.6000
4.00
11.22%
Starhub
3.4700
5.70
10.19%
Singtel
3.6700
4.00
9.58%
M1
2.3600
5.50
6.93%
SembCorp Industries
2.4500
3.00
6.39%
Capitaland Mall Trust
1.9050
5.80
5.59%
Fraser Logistics & Industrial Trust
0.9200
7.00
5.40%
First REIT
1.2500
6.75
3.67%
Keppel Corp
5.3700
5.00
5.25%
SPH
3.7500
5.00
3.67%
Keppel DC REIT
1.0822
6.17
2.82%
Capitaland Commercial
1.3523
6.15
2.21%
SPHREIT
0.9293
5.80
2.12%
Ascendas Hospitality
0.6991
8.03
1.14%
Mapletree Logistics
0.9800
7.40
0.96%
STI ETF
2.8058
3.50
10.98%
Total

4.84
100.00%


Legend
CDP
SCB

Total Invested Capital = $30,660.37

Total Expected Dividends/month = $123.66

Average Dividend Yield = 4.84%

Now, we have yet another surprise in the markets this month, when the US elected the wildcard in all these time, now we have 2 surprises this year, Brexit and now a Trump victory.

The reaction of the markets was deja vu to Brexit, falling initially and quickly rallying afterwards. This is surprising to many, including me. I had believed that a Trump victory would destroy existing trade relations with the world, negatively affecting the corporate profits of companies depending on this. But the markets chose to focus on Trump's potentially fiscally stimulating policies, and his growth focused policies to drive inflation higher.



As a result, we see the usual beneficiaries like defence companies surging as a result, as well as financial stocks like banks who would benefit from higher interest rates as a result of higher inflation.

And just recently, oil and gas related stocks got a boost from the OPEC decision to cut production. Although we know of the tendency of OPEC members to cheat on this agreement, this is a first step in the process of cutting production since 2008. It shows commitment to control prices, though it will take years for current demand to consume the existing supply. In the longer term, it is positive to oil stocks as it provides a floor to prices for oil.



As a result, I have seen my portfolio rise in tandem as it has been heavy on banking and oil and gas stocks despite the drag from the telcom segment.

As the threat from yet another hike in the interest rate approaches, I have been busy snapping up REIT counters. Now, it has boosted my portfolio invested amount to $30k, a rise of $6k in a month, mainly from purchases of REIT counters. Should REIT counters continue to decline further, I may consider to load up further.

Some notable REIT counters purchases include Capitaland Mall Trust and Fraser Logistic Trust.



I like Capitaland Mall Trust because of the management effectiveness from managing over a decade and provided investors with a steady and sustainable stream of income. It is also the largest in terms of capitalisation for the retail REITs. I believe that the dividends paid are sustainable for many years to come, and patient investors will be rewarded. However, should it retest the $2.20 resistance again, I will not rule out offloading and trading off the price movement. Historically, Capitaland Mall Trust has always been a BB plaything, so it has been consistently trading around a price range.

In addition, I have initiated a position with Fraser Logistics and Industrial Trust (FLT). My main reason for entering would be the fundamentals of the REIT. It has a low gearing, currently less than 30% even after recently exercising the 3rd call option, reasonable all-in average interest rate, fair interest coverage ratio and a long WALE. The biggest advantage it has over the local industrial REITs is the presence of the significant freehold properties it holds. Theoretically, it would mean being able to generate income perpetually, but that is based on the assumption that there are tenants leasing out in the first place. Nevertheless, with reasonable rental escalation of 2-3%, I would bet on the fundamentals of this REIT. However, it is likely the pace of increase in its distributions would be slow and gradual, but still better off than having negative trending distributions.



And there we have it, I have reached the highest portfolio value I have invested. At around $30k, and an average yield of 4.84%, it means I get to receive $123 a month. My target of 1k per month is still a while off, but this is a step in the right direction. Positively thinking, to achieve $1k per month of distributions, it would mean around 10 times of the current vested amount, a whooping $300k. Well, seems far, but I will push on and hopefully achieve this by my 35th birthday, just in time to buy a flat if I'm still single then!

Till next time!

Sunday, 6 November 2016

Portfolio Update - October 2016

*As of 31 October 2016

Counter
Average Price
Yield on cost(%)
Weightage
UOB Bank
17.8600
4.00
15.25%
OCBC Bank
8.6000
4.00
14.40%
Starhub
3.4700
5.70
13.07%
M1
2.3600
5.50
8.89%
SembCorp Industries
2.4500
3.00
8.20%
First REIT
1.2500
6.75
4.71%
Keppel Corp
5.3700
5.00
6.74%
SPH
3.7500
5.00
4.71%
Capitaland Commercial
1.3523
6.15
2.83%
SPHREIT
0.9293
5.80
2.72%
Keppel DC REIT
1.0102
6.50
1.69%
Ascendas Hospitality
0.6991
8.03
1.46%
Mapletree Logistics
0.9800
7.40
1.23%
STI ETF
2.8058
3.50
14.09%
Total

4.70
100.00%

Legend
CDP
SCB

Total Invested Capital = $23,892.23

Total Expected Dividends/month = $93.58

Average Dividend Yield = 4.7%

We now enter a phase where the Presidential Elections are taking its effect on the markets. Clearly, the markets prefer Hillary Clinton as the default president to win it, as when the email scrutiny began, markets began to fall apart.

And once again, the Fed is now on the verge of looking to increase interest rates again. The most likely period is looking like in December. Well, in fact, I am looking forward to this December, and it is not because of the festivities. The threat of interest rate hikes will definitely have an impact on REITs and other interest rate sensitive instruments. And it is just about right that I am still currently on the lookout to increase my REIT exposure. In addition, December would also mean bonuses which can be used to increase these positions should the time calls for it.

As my name suggests, I am a dividend guy, so I am only looking for stocks which pay dividends. No dividends, not in my watchlist. However, there are some stocks having their dividends threatened by cuts due to the industry they are in and I am watching this carefully and taking action if necessary. Readers know I have taken a substantial positions on telcos recently, and I am monitoring it carefully. 

To reduce exposure, there are 2 ways to do it.

1) Decrease the specific position.
2) Increase positions from other industries, aka diversifying.

I am more in favour of the latter. My reason is that I am young and able to take more risks now. Also, given the power of compounding on dividend paying counters, time in the market matters, not timing the market. Money in the bank is good to have, particularly for warchest purposes. But too much money in the bank gets rotted away by inflation, so there is some balance to be achieved.

So what did I do this month?


This month, I added Sembcorp Industries at a price of $2.45. It is part of the step of diversifying as well as what I felt was value in the markets. I had been eyeing Sembcorp ever since the oil plunge back in 2014, and had even initiated a position at around $4 plus back then. I have to admit some luck in exiting without much losses before the huge plunge, but fundamentals had changed for the worse which led to me exiting. Now, fundamentals are still bleak, and I am not looking to make a quick buck from this. This is definitely a very long term position as I do not forsee the oil and energy market rebouncing strongly in the next 2-3 years. This however was bought based on value alone, as it can be considered we are buying the utilities business and getting Sembcorp Marine almost free. In the meantime, dividends are now a little more sustainable, and I like to get paid while I wait for the upcycle.


Meantime, results from the telcos have been fairly poor. We can only imagine what they are going through now. The 4th telco is barely even out in the market yet, and Starhub and M1 have already started out with weaker profits, both reporting falls in incomes of around 20%. Now, with this 4th telco coming into an already saturated market should they do so, I can only imagine the stiff competition and market they will face. Without a strong backer, it is very difficult for this 4th telco to survive in the Singapore market. And definitely we will not see the incumbents sitting there doing nothing. They will go all out to defend their market share. What eventually will happen however, your guess is as good as mine.



These past few months have seen me increasing positions, and now it has almost reached to the $24k mark and set to increase should the REITs become compelling enough.

My target of achieving $100k by 30th birthday remains on track. To protect the majority of my capital, most of my cash will remain in saving accounts. I will continue to prudently invest in smallish amounts, while consistently saving up the rest. My expenditure had been pretty high lately, given the long holidays I had just been to, as well as the frequent outings lately. In fact, baring any unforeseen circumstances, I should see myself achieving the target by my 28th birthday, which I definitely would be happy if that happens.

Lets see how things turn out then.

Sunday, 2 October 2016

Portfolio Update - September 2016

*As of 30 September 2016

Counter Average Price Yield on cost(%) Weightage
UOB Bank
18.2150
4.00
16.61%
OCBC Bank
8.6000
4.00
15.68%
Starhub
3.4700
5.70
14.24%
M1
2.3600
5.50
9.68%
First REIT
1.2500
6.75
5.13%
Keppel Corp
5.3700
5.00
7.35%
SPH
3.7500
5.00
5.13%
Capitaland Commercial
1.3523
6.15
3.08%
SPHREIT
0.9293
5.80
2.97%
Keppel DC REIT
1.0102
6.50
1.84%
Ascendas Hospitality
0.6991
8.03
1.59%
Mapletree Logistics
0.9800
7.40
1.34%
STI ETF
2.8058
3.50
15.35%
Total

4.85
100.00%

Legend
CDP
SCB

Total Invested Capital = $21,932.23

Total Expected Dividends/month = $88.64

Average Dividend Yield = 4.85%

And we know the cycle repeats again, the Fed has reverted to not increasing interest rates again. Now you get the picture, we go from fear after fear and then the resulting volatility in the markets. What we can do is to capitalise on this volatility to buy into companies with sustainable cash flow or growth depending on the intention of investing into that particular security.

So what did I do this time?

My portfolio remains quiet as ever as markets still remain significantly higher than the low we witnessed in January. There is no reason for me to invest into anything if the prices are still higher than my last buy price. That is the mechanism that I will live by and stay disciplined to continue to do so.

This month, I added M1 as it has revisited the lows of when I had previously entered using my SCB account back in March. I had since divested it, but I felt that level was a reasonable valuation. My 2 cents on the 4th telco saga is that it is overrated. Come on, we can't expect the other telcos to just sit back and relax and allow the 4th telco to grow into a threat right? And even if it grows, it may not reach the maturity similar to the existing telcos within the next 5 years or so. 

Yet, I like to compare this situation to the threats faced by the local banks back in 1999, when the Singapore government liberalised the banking system to allow greater access to foreign banks into the domestic market. This was intended to increase the competitiveness of our local banks. So clearly in comparison, it is A LOT worse than the 4th telco, in fact this allowed access for many foreign banks to expand into our shores.



So this begs the question, did our local banks die off?

Well, the fact we still see them around proves otherwise. Looking at the share prices of the 3 local banks, in fact, their share prices went the complete opposite way where all naysayers believed. They took up positions within the top 20 strongest banks in the world. Now that is a feat.

Now it doesn't need a genius to see the connection I am trying to prove here. I do not think it will be terrible for the telcos here, in fact they may face competition and this may eat into their profit margins. But this forces them to rethink and work out on cost competitive ways to stay in business. Sometimes, we need something threatening to force a change for the better.

Overall, the addition of M1 increases the exposure to the 'income' stocks segment in my portfolio, as I had intended to. The 'income' segment has now exceeded the 'general' stocks segment, but I will continue to buy into income companies should they reach price levels which are attractive to me. I am looking at an 'income' stock right now, but it is still in the early stages and I would prefer to continue monitoring before taking any action first. The identity of this stock will only be made known once I had successfully added it into my portfolio.



And so that is all for the month of September. Upcoming events such as the US presidential elections, the impending rate hike in December may cause some volatility in the markets, so stay safe and let the power of compounding to do its work. Let us see how things unravel from here.

Chaos.